After nearly 6 weeks without any significant snow for much of the northern and western Alps, the much anticipated 3-day storm cycle is finally underway! But while this fresh snow will be very welcome – with up to 1m possible by evening in some north-western parts of the Alps – the storm will not come without complications!
Firstly, the rain/snow limit during this storm is extremely hard to predict, at least during the early part of the storm , as so much cold air is already entrenched across the Alps. The arrival of a warm front will increase the rain/snow limit to 1400–1700m this afternoon in the more exposed western and north-western parts of the Alps (e.g. Portes du Soleil) but it will remain lower for longer in the more enclosed valleys (e.g. upper Chamonix valley, Swiss Valais).
This will lead to significant variations in snowfall totals at lower altitudes across the western Alps. On the whole, the further south-east you are, the lower the impact of the warm sector of the storm, with the upper limit of any rain unlikely to be much above 1000m from the eastern half of Switzerland eastwards, at least away from the northern edges of the Alps.
Then, on , it will start to turn colder again from the north-west with snow initially falling above 1000–1200m or so in the western Alps, then lowering to 600–800m later in the day and then back into the lowest valleys by Friday night and into .
Secondly, with many parts of the Alps having such a meagre base, which is often hard-packed and icy, any serious accumulations of snow will quickly become unstable and liable to sliding. Wind and, in places rain, will further complicate the situation, all leading to highly dangerous off-piste conditions, especially in the north-western Alps. In short, it is recommended that you stay on-piste for the foreseeable future, at least until the storm has died down and the risk of avalanche has been thoroughly assessed by local authorities.
When all is said and done, by night we can expect somewhere close to 1 metre of fresh snow having accumulated above 1800m in some north-western parts of the Alps, especially in France (e.g. Val Thorens, Tignes, La Rosière, Flaine), with significant snow also accumulating across many other parts of France, north-western Italy, Switzerland and, later, the west of Austria.
The further south-east you are, the less snow will fall, with some southern parts of the Alps (e.g. Livigno, Dolomites, Isola 2000) not seeing much at all...
Print